Editor’s Note: This article was written by Shawn King, host of Your Mac Life
Apple on Monday announced the dates and a few details about the next Worldwide Developers Conference. Not surprisingly, speculation about what Apple will tell those developers reached a fever pitch a scant few hours after the press release was sent out to the media.
[ad#Google Adsense 300×250 in story]Our Much Revered Publisher (He makes us call him that) has come out and affirmatively (and quite authoritatively) said Apple, contrary to past actions, will not announce any iPhone, iPad or Mac hardware updates at WWDC.
However, not everyone agrees. Over at GigaOm.com, Darrell Etherington writes, Will We Really See a Hardware-Free WWDC?. What struck me was his comments about the timing of the next iPhone launch.
He believes Apple will announce a new iPhone at this June’s WWDC. His logic is interesting to say the least.
He writes, “Apple putting off a release this time around would be dangerous: It stands to leave a lot of potential consumers on the table who might jump to LTE Android devices.”
It got me thinking — are there significant numbers of iPhone customers who wouldn’t wait for the next iPhone? I don’t mean people who, for whatever reason, simply don’t like the iPhone — they will likely switch regardless of the next launch date.
We’ve seen several reports, the latest J.D. Power and Associates study is just one of many, showing that iPhone owners are very happy with their devices.
Etherington says, “deviating from its standard release schedule without comment might still lead to an overall erosion of its user base.”
Sure, it might, but I believe it’s highly unlikely that any significant number of customers would hear that Apple isn’t releasing an iPhone this June and decide, “Well, I’ll buy an Android phone instead.”
He correctly states that “customers who bought AT&T 3GS devices at launch are due for renewal this year.” but then goes on to say, “many won‚t wait an additional six months for Apple to come up with new and improved hardware. LTE-equipped 4G Android devices might appeal to a good chunk of those buyers…”
I don’t disagree that a percentage of the iPhone audience would love to have a 4G device but I would argue those people are the small percentage of geeks who even know what 4G is. And while those customers may very well move to 4G capable Android devices, I don’t think the vast majority, or even a statistically significant minority of present iPhone customers are willing to give up their investment — in time, energy and money — they have in the iPhone.
So, here’s the question. How many of you in The Loop Nation will drop your iPhone for a 4G Android device if Apple doesn’t release the iPhone 5 this June?
Eh this network speed penis waving doesn’t appeal to the vast majority of it’s users, like you said it’s the geeks out there who will be affected by this.
Apple could not release a new phone for the next 2 years and I would still be using an iPhone 2 years down the track because it works for me.
Oh also Apple not releasing an iPhone 5 at WWDC will be called Phonegate or maybe iPhonegate or even Entitlegate.
I can only speak for myself, but Apple is in no danger of losing me over postponing the next iPhone. I doubt that will happen (postponement) but I would wait. Being an early adopter, I now skip generations of the iPhone. I’ve got a 3GS, my wife has a 4. No big deal. Until the 5 is released my 3GS will continue to do everything it currently can. No loss for me.
Having said that, I think it’s more likely that if not announced at WWDC it will be announced at its own press event.
I think the average person might be swayed by android phones with 4G, bigger screens, and good marketing. The average person looks to their friends for what’s cool, and the more people use android, the easier it will be for people to get one.
People that love Apple will just get the iphone 4 or wait, but it isn’t inconceivable that people will have android envy when they pop into Best Buy and hear the geek behind the counter rave about 4G android phones.
I wouldn’t be suprised about there being no hardware announcements at WWDC. With a new OS version coming out for the Mac OS, and a likely a revision for the iOS, there’s enough on Apples plate at WWDC.
However no annoucements at WWDC doesn’t mean no hardware announcements in the weeks before or after WWDC. Heck, Apple doesn’t even have to have an event, just release the product, like the new MacBook Pros were (though I’m sure for a new iPhone or any major changes to the Mac line, there would at least be an event at Apple’s own campus ‘town hall)
My iPhone 3GS still does plenty more than I really need. I’m fine with waiting for the iPhone 5 and then deciding if I want to upgrade.
Also, I don’t think normal people emotionally relate with the geek behind the counter at Best Buy.
Like many, I purchased an iPhone 4 with the discounted prices as provided by AT&T last summer, thus extending my contract another two years. I had decided, however, that the next iPhone I get will be out of contract so that I may snag the best deal with the best carrier. Considering LTE technologies will have matured by 2012 (at least marginally), I was happy to wait until then to make a purchase.
The news that the next iPhone might be postponed until then was a happy coincidence. I have my fingers crossed that it will be an LTE device, as the data speeds even at low signal strength have me conviced that is an experience worth waiting for. I will not, however, abandon the iOS ecosystem – I have too many applications and games purchased for iOS to justify purchasing an Android device simply because there is no new iPhone. As posters above me have said, my current phone is functioning perfectly well, and will continue to beat the experience of most Android devices.
I know a few people who like their Androids. None of them have owned an iPhone. Anyone I know who switched to the Android from an iPhone is probably coming back. Why? They simply are not as good. And the statistics support that conclusion.
I think Shawn has a point. But I also think that a lot of people are also locked in for reasons besides the contract they signed two years ago to get a 3Gs.
1: We all know an iPhone 5 is coming and it won’t be until a year from June. Simply not going to happen. That would be so out of character for Apple. Maybe they want to move the iPhone to the Fall to coincide with updates to the iPod Touch and iPod Classic. With the new SSD drives with 256 gigs in a 1.8″ package, it is tempting to think the iPod Touch could replace the Classic. But prices are still too high. Way higher than the same capacity in a 2.5″ form. Maybe in a few years they’ll be reasonably priced. Then the Classic can go away.
2: People who got those free AT&T Microcells in their homes are in a two year contract for those as well. So they are tied to AT&T even if their iPhones fall out of contract. That will keep them with AT&T for at least that long, so a new iPhone can be later and they’ll still be customers.
3: Verizon is proving to be not all that compelling a switch as some people used to think when they were mooning over the fact that they will some day be able to switch, not knowing all the issues positive and negative to a switch from AT&T to the big V. Though my co-worker who has a Verizon iPhone loves the fact that he gets great reception in our buildings at work, while AT&T is pretty sketchy.
While I do find it amusing that we seem to have made the leap from “no hardware at WWDC” to “no iPhone for at least six months,” ultimately it doesn’t matter. Real people (in the U.S), which is to say no one reading this site, tend to upgrade their phones when one of two things happen. Either their current phone stops working, or their carrier offers them a discount to renew their contract.
There are still plenty of people that ownes a Iphone 3G, like me for example. I was waiting for the 5 to come out to get this one, but now that it might be an earlier date, it makes me doubt what to do. Buy the 4 and to realize that the 5 is comming out in half a year, or wait still all this time for the 5 to come out. It’s annoying and I could understand that people might jump from the 3G to another device. 3GS and 4 owners don’t have that bit of problem with it, but there is still a bunch of people who owne a 3G. Don’t forget about those. So yes, it’s probable they might lose a minority, but still significant to open up possibilities for the competition to jump on..
Exactly. Almost all of these attempts to predict subscriber migration are taking place in a tech-nerd vacuum. Normal people switch carriers or buy new phones for very different reasons than the writers at GigaOm.
I have always been a Verizon customer, and I have never owned an iPhone or any smart phone. Since the 3Gs I have had this motorolla… thing, and I have been waiting until June (could have got a iPhone 4 or anything else already) for the next iPhone. My dad LOVES his Android phone and he wants me to get one, so if there is no iPhone5 or upgrade, then sure I’ll get an Android. Of course I love Apple way more, but as long as I can do things any smart phone can do, then I’ll be happy. (Still crossing fingers for new iPhone. =P )
Mee too.
I have an iPad to get me thru the nite though.
hmmm ,beautifully explained all in between ………..
NFWP! Our iPhone 3GS’s will do just fine until the 5 arrives, whenever that is. With all the kerfuffle over the 4’s antenna, I’m sure Apple will come up with a good solution–even if there WAS no situation in the first place. So, however long it takes to get the 5 nailed, that’s fine with me. It’s also worth the wait to see all the jaws drop over being surprised and delighted yet again with the next new Apple product.
Anothter question is why do people continue to insist the developer conference needs hardware announcements of any sort, much less the iPhone 5. Are we that ignorant if even recent history? What contingent of the iPhone target demographic is so keyed up for a new iPhone that not getting an announcement in the first week of June means they won’t buy it when it’s announced at the beginning of July (my prediction)?
I think it’s also worth pointing out that any argument based on the idea that a significant chunk of the target demographic knows or cares about Apple’s upgrade cycle until it’s common knowledge that a new phone is available is specious reasoning at best.
Fun fact, only about half of the WWDC keynotes since 2000 have had hardware announcements. (sourced from Wikipedia, so blame the wisdom of the clowns if I’m wrong on that)
If someone is stupid enough to listen to a BestBuy employee, then they don’t deserve to have an iPhone.
No way I’d switch my 3GS for an android phone. I’m really hoping for a next gen iPhone this summer as I have serious iPhone 4 envy but I dont mind waiting.
I’m surprised no one has mentioned the parallels to MacWorld, Apple got out of that because they didn’t want to be bound to a date for hardware announcements. WWDC has to be set months in advance to secure the location and allow for attendees to book travel plans.
If they decouple WWDC and the iPhone reveal then it gives them more flexibility with their announcements which I’m sure they want.
“I’m surprised no one has mentioned the parallels to MacWorld, Apple got out of that because they didn’t want to be bound to a date for hardware announcements.”
Mostly because that was a red herring on Apple’s part. The “real” reasons for leaving Expo are wide and varied.
I’d just like to say that it’s cool to see more Shawn King posts on The Loop, if only to stir up more courteous neckbeard debate.
Committing the next two years of your life to an Android phone simply because you can’t wait a few months for the newest iPhone (what’s wrong getting the 4, anyway?) is just plain silly. IMO, the next iPhone won’t be a “5” but rather a 4S, like the 3gs compared to the 3G. Dual-core A5, maybe some more RAM, maybe a slight antennae redesign to appease the press… nothing radical though.
people complain about buyer’s remorse with Apple products, yet they’re the most predictable. New android phones come out every month – a constant state of “i’ll just wait till XYZ comes out next month”
On AT&T myself…
Was waiting for an iPhone 5. However if one is not forthcoming, I will probably look into a HSUPA Android handset before purchasing. Don’t have LTE where I live and doubt I’ll have it before 2012… My current phone is five years old though and doesn’t even support 3G. So while my June purchase decision was made up last week, now it is open again. I guess it depends on what is really available in the next few months.
Switching to Verizon is not a option personally.
What about those of us who’s contracts have been up for 4 months or more now and have been considering an iPhone or an Android phone but currently don’t have either? Are we to wait another 3-7 months for the possibility of an iPhone 5 which no one even knows anything about for any certainty, purchase an end of life iPhone 4 and pine over the features we could have almost had, or purchase an Android such as the Nexus S that is pretty much the equivalent if not even a bit better than the current iPhone. Not to mention the fact that since data capping is becoming more and more prevalent to cash in on tethering, there’s so much more to consider now.
Such a tough place to be but I’m pretty sure I’m not the only one in this boat.
I heard this rumor yesterday and immediately went out and got myself an HTC Thunderbolt with LTE, dumping my iPhone. But it was an original ’07 2G iPhone, not a 3G, 3GS, or 4. In other words, slow as molasses in January. Going uphill. In Manitoba. I was gritting my teeth and holding out for something from Apple this summer, but September truly is too long to wait.
That said, once LTE comes to the iPhone I’ll pay my $600 for the full retail, no contract phone and sell the Thunderbolt on Ebay. Verizon’s reception is far superior to AT&T and I’m really enjoying the free tethering and unlimited data for as long as it lasts.
“I think the average person might be swayed by android phones with 4G, bigger screens, and good marketing.”
No offense to android fans but android phones and good marketing? Wake me up when that happens.
I don’t know where this Shawn King guy is getting his information from, but I work for Apple and I can guarantee you there will be an iPhone in June. bet the house on it
I will never own another phone that isn’t an iPhone. My wife has had 2 fragmadroids from T-Mobile and they are horrible. Co-workers have the Droid, Droid 2, Evo, Galaxy, etc. and they are all horribly substandard when compared with my iPhone 4. Too many work arounds, too many half baked ideas and battery life on any of them doesn’t hold a candle to my phone. Apple can wait until all carriers have a 4G network and the chips don’t suck battery life for an update. I will stay with my phone and be completely satisfied.
Apple’s exclusivity and mysterious aura is gonna catch up with it one day …. while Apple sleeps in it’s proprietory platform, more open platforms will take over.
While it’s certainly possible your characterization of Apple may “catch up to it one day”, there’s absolutely *no* evidence available right now that it is true or will come true in the foreseeable future. So far, the only thing I hear from people who promote “more open platforms” is “eventually”. Sorry but, for me, that’s not good enough.