Marc Zeedar, TidBITS:

While the App Store may be a senior citizen in Internet time, as a marketplace, it’s barely out of diapers. But we’ve now reached a point where I believe the App Store will either morph into something genuinely useful or fade away as a fad.

I don’t mean that the App Store itself will go away — it won’t — but it could disappear as a business opportunity for most developers. In this dystopian future, the only profitable apps left will be a handful of entertainment apps by huge companies and “business essential” apps, such as those made by banks or news organizations for their customers.

The looming threat that I see is abandoned apps.

Key here is Apple’s plans to deprecate 32-bit apps in iOS 11. If you’ve invested in an app that the developer has no plans to update, that investment may fall to zero. If it’s a 32-bit game you’ve spent a lot of time with, you’ll no longer have access to the game (it won’t load anymore) and your progress is lost to the ages (unless you stop updating your device).

More importantly, if you’ve embraced iOS as your main OS, any data you’ve created using a 32-bit app will no longer be accessible.

On the Mac, if a developer abandons an app you rely on, you can easily make backup copies and reinstall it if needed. If an app won’t run on a new version of macOS, you can theoretically boot from an older version or run the app in a virtual machine. Worst case, you can usually find a way to at least migrate your data to another app.

In iOS, the situation is different. Because Apple exercises total control over which apps are allowed to run and how you get and install them, there is no way to get abandoned apps to work (short of jailbreaking, which introduces its own set of non-trivial problems).

I can’t imagine Apple isn’t working this problem internally. They’ve certainly given plenty of warning. But the stark difference between the impact of major changes in macOS and iOS are worth thinking about.

Read the rest of Marc’s TidBITS post. Thoughtful stuff.