But that’s not the story at all. For one thing, Android overtook the Wintel world way back in 2012. The story here is that mobile utterly dwarfs desktop and laptop computing. Civilization has been changing under our very noses, and today even the second largest mobile platform outsells the world of Wintel.
This is an interesting take from Bryan Chaffin.
It’s been clear to me, that just like the way to a telephone for most Chinese was not landline then mobile like those of us in the west experienced, but direct to mobile, our experience of years past of pc, laptop, cell phone, smartphone, has been abridged by technology to become Direct to smartphone.
Most people never really needed the pc, laptop, cell phone, the only ever needed a smartphone, but the infrastructure and the tech was not there to deliver it until the iPhone appeared; this is what is being represented in sales figures.
It seems to me a portion of pc sales are replacement units bought by folks that already had one and are unaware that there are better mobile technologies and experiences to be had, or are afraid of change. As these people die out or become confident to move off wintel, the pic decline will further accelerate. The same can be said for business as it figures out how to replace laptops with iPads.
I disagree. Mobile devices have a much higher replacement cycle than computers. And computers have reached a maturity point where you dont really need to replace it unless you perform very specific tasks like gaming or HD video editing. Any computer from 5 years ago works fine today, you can’t say the same about phones, especially with planned/forced obsolescene like new software versions not working on older devices.
That’s like saying taxis are overtaking private cars because more taxi fares are being paid than cars being bought.
“a portion of pc sales are replacement units bought by folks that already had one and are unaware that there are better mobile technologies and experiences to be had”
For work there is no ‘better’ technology. While Adobe Creative Cloud and Microsoft Office are available on other platforms, but not nearly as usable and efficient. I can’t picture ever doing my InDesign book layout on a tablet or smartphone.
Point is that most people don’t need the features or power of a pc, a mobile device is all they need, and as more realize this, more first time buyers and replacers will both go to mobile rather than wintel.
I dont think that’s what it means, because computers offer much more than just “power”. They’re much more reliable, efficient and open. If anything it will just slow sales because people already have a perfectly good equipment that they will only replace when it fails. Unlike phones which are replaced either by vanity or forced obsolescence.
Why is a “smartphone” any better than a PC? Some people do not want to be bothered by all this “smartness”, because in many ways it’s a bad distraction – in other ways (probably many more) “smart” devices are completely retarded.
I do hope this will change in the next 5 to 10 years – it probably will – as soon as companies and people figure out how to write software… apps, systems to actually work – securely and be trusted by the user (not the corporate jerknutz, NSA or the Feds).
Yes, I realize that the terms, “NSA” and “jerknutz” are redundant.
sometimes one needs a “computer” to lookup why his or her phone is not working correctly … since the phone (or whatever device) is not working correctly. Not actually redundant… though some may argue.
Two smart phones are better than one?
That is a pointless example. I’ve used my phone (or iPad) to look up why my computer isn’t working, but that doesn’t make my mobile device inherently better.
The best tool for the job at hand is the best device at that particular moment; sometimes it’s a “real” computer, sometimes it’s a mobile device.