Neil Cybart, writing for Above Avalon:
We are quickly approaching a pivotal moment in Apple’s history as technology and mobile are on a collision course with the automobile. While most would conclude Elon Musk’s Tesla and a few of the strongest automakers are the leading contenders of this new automobile era, Apple and Uber are the two companies best positioned to rule the new era of the automobile.
This is a long read, but fascinating all the way through. At the heart of this discussion is the question of what drives (excuse the pun) today’s (and tomorrow’s) automobile purchase.
On one hand, people want simple utility, a safe way to get from point A to point B. Uber delivers this at a reasonable cost. If you live in an urban or suburban area, this model works well. Though some people care about arriving in style, most people just need a ride and are OK getting there in a compact car, as opposed to a black SUV. This utilitarian outlook is especially strong in harder economic times, when tighter pursestrings push luxury further into the background.
On the other hand, there’s the quest for personalization:
Having a car be able to adapt to whoever is sitting in it, which makes more sense in a world where car ownership is on the decline, will be one of the most revolutionary developments the automobile has ever experienced. We are used to a certain level of customization in automobiles such as different seat positions, but personalization will add much more in the way of software to customization to produce an entirely new experience. A family with four kids and luggage has different needs than a commuter headed to work. Having a car that can adapt to both of these users in terms of seating, amenities, and not to mention technological needs and luxuries will be much more important than having a car that has fast acceleration or longer driving range.
And few companies can deliver as elegant and personalized an experience as can Apple.
There’s lots more to the article (notes on history, self-driving cars, Tesla, CarPlay). A terrific read.
Let’s look a little further down the road when the Battery Giga-Factory is almost complete – Tesla will BECOME Apple… So Tesla will still be Uber’s competition but will have a bit more muscle to CRUSH Uber.
Interesting ideas. However, I’ll expect Uber to implode from management malfeasance within the next decade. Also, the idea that Uber is more convenient then a car is probably very true in large, congested metropolitan areas like NYC, DC, etc. Much of the US is spread out enough that the cost/benefit doesn’t play the same.
Some of these discussions seem very big city centric. I don’t want to have to rely on a car service every time I go somewhere. I like my car thank you very much.
“when the Battery Giga-Factory is almost complete – Tesla will BECOME Apple”
Unpack that.
The capex required to place these batteries into Tesla-built cars in the immediate term – when the factory is “almost complete” – appears to be out of Tesla’s reach at the moment*.
Most of these batteries are going into other manufacturers’s vehicles and into structures (commercial and residential).
*http://www.nasdaq.com/article/will-tesla-motors-inc-need-to-raise-capital-cm474645
Last I checked, Apple’s ability to cover CapEx requirements for most everything they pursue is not in question…. $198 BILLION in cash would probably do it..
“Apple’s ability to cover CapEx “
I’m with you now. You’re in the “Apple will acquire Tesla” boat.
I haven’t found a compelling argument to support that acquisition.
‘Compelling argument’ ?? Hummm.. Let’s see – a giant leap forward in battery technology for ALL of Apple’s product in one transaction… To experts in supply chain management like Tim, THAT’S compelling… And a 2-3 year leap ahead of all competition in their various market segments that to many of their competitors is un-matchable, you do the math….
“a giant leap forward in battery technology”
That’s not at all the Gigafactory promise. It will build lithium-ion batteries.
Not only will Apple have to pay a premium for TSLA, who makes cars in an antiquated fashion, Panasonic will likely push the price up further.
Apple doesn’t have buy TSLA to gain the advantages you highlight. Apple’s move into chip design and manufacture support this: they buy far less expensive expertise (read: companies).
Nonsense. People are going to clue into the fact that Uber’s CEO is a sociopath and has no interest in providing a quality product. They don’t care about the good they could do. They are the opposite of Apple.
May Elon Musk crush them under his heel.
what giant leap in battery tech? from what ive read tesla’s new battery packs are just the same shit (lithium ion) everybodys been using.
im also not big on Uber, despite being a techie who hates his local cab companies for their poor service. why? surge pricing. every time i try to take one the price is jacked up beyond what a cab costs.
Who is going to make the cars that Uber drivers buy? They won’t be able to afford an Apple car! They’re the new Serfs of the Sharing Age.
Uber is an end-run around taxi regulation, beloved by the dudebro libertarian set, but they’re pretty much a direct path back to the Bad Old Days when taxis weren’t regulated.
Like most dudebro libertarians who have grown up with safe drugs, safe cars, regulated services, canned food that isn’t packed with rat and human body parts, they love to wail about ‘regulations being horrible and stifling innovation’ but they have little clue how those ‘stifling regulations’ came about in the first place, or what it really was like during their dream days of the Gilded Age of lazziez faire utopia.
Like the ‘past life’ folks who were always kings and generals and Important People, they discount the fact that their lives would have been almost certainly brutish, short and miserable.
Secondly Uber (and AirBnB, TaskRabbit and other parts of the ‘sharing’ economy) are primarily means for people to try to hang on to a middle-class life in an era of dwindling job prospects, wage stagnation, and a voracious 0.01% gobbling up an ever increasing piece of the economic pie while the US slithers towards third-world status…they’re not signs of a bright future of innovation, but rather a clear indication of our dystopian prospects.
We’re headed towards Blade Runner, not TomorrowLand…
What research is Uber doing in this field that genuinely amounts to something other than venture capital?
Uber is a dumb parasite; it provides a needed service at a lower cost by giving workers little value for their effort. They see no problem with impoverishing people who have to work a second or fourth job in order to pay the rent.
They’re one of the companies that’s eating the middle class, not building it up. On the rare occasions I need to use them, I make sure I tip the driver as well as I reasonably can.
I don’t see their business doing much more than smug end-runs around incumbents. Genuine, innovative development takes something more than predatory behavior.
Think different.
ÜBER won’t even get to see the next sunrise if at any point Tesla and Google Automobile Divisions decide to strike a licensing deal for fully automated electric vehicles.
I don’t see Apple entering the Full Automobile Manufacturing Business because of what I mentioned just above and the fact that Elon Musk isn’t selling Tesla Automobile Division, he has been repeatedly turning down to every proposal that the World Top 5 Automakers had made in that regard, he most probably wait until he gets bored when the electric car becomes a mature product (we are talking medium term).
And neither Apple nor Tim Cook are fools.