Tim Bajarin:
When Apple introduced the Apple Watch last fall, I talked to people in the high-end watch market to get a sense of whether they viewed it as a threat in any way. What I heard was a bit surprising. They said Apple has created a completely new paradigm in watches, which will define what a “watch” will be and can do in the future. Most importantly, these sources told me that even the ultra high-end watchmakers are taking note. But they are struggling with how to respond given that the Apple Watch is not as much a watch as it is a wrist computer that could shift the role a timepiece plays in people’s lives.
Even though the watch may not sell as well as the iPhone, Apple did the same thing in that industry—it made the incumbents nervous because they were offering something completely new and different.
Apple will almost certainly sell more 1st gen Watches than they did 1st gen iPhones. It will take many iterations for it to even reach half of iPhone unit sales. Until recently, I was doubtful that any product could have the potential to be as profitable as the iPhone. Now I’m not so certain; maybe I will see a product larger than the iPhone in my lifetime. We’ll have to wait and see if Apple ever decides to report Watch sales as a separate category each quarter.
As someone with a nice collection of mechanical watches, I do plan to try out the Apple Watch. But, it does make me wonder. I rotate my watches based on mood or dress, and they all get plenty of wrist time. The Apple Watch does not fit the rotation model. Rather, you’ll likely want it on your wrist every day and all day. Leaving home without it could become problematic. So, do I wear something on both wrists? Do I give up my passion for mechanical watches and start selling off some number of them? This is how I see the wrist computer threatening fine watches.
Yours is one of the more interesting comments I’ve seen on how the Apple Watch might affect current watch users.