One thing I’ve learned over the last 20 years of writing about Apple is that there’s no shortage of naysayers, ready to declare certain failure of the company’s newest product—whatever that product happens to be. The Apple Watch is the latest in a long list of products, that includes the iPod, iPhone, iPad and Macs, that critics says will fail.
The truth of the matter is, nobody knows if the Apple Watch will be a huge success, a moderate blip on the consumer’s radar or a dismal failure. What we do have, is history of what’s happened with Apple’s major product releases, and a reasonable understanding of how consumers feel about the company. With this information, we can make some logical assumptions about how the Apple Watch will do in the market.
- Based on what the naysayers have said about releases of the iPhone and iPad in recent years, and the fact that consumers have purchased them in record numbers, I would say that people, in general, are more educated in their purchasing decisions than ever before.
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While we do know what the Apple Watch will look like, it seems like a safe bet that Apple hasn’t given us all of the details on the functionality of the device. For instance, we don’t yet know the full integration of the Apple Watch and the iPhone, although some intriguing details have recently surfaced. We also don’t know which apps will be available on the device.
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Apple is positioning the watch at the fashion space as much as they are to consumers. This is evidenced with the Paris unveiling of the watch at Colette, a high-end Paris boutique.
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Apple will face a problem convincing people that haven’t worn a watch for years—or have never worn a watch—that they need an Apple Watch. A lot of people, me included, haven’t worn a watch since I started carrying a smartphone. I can be convinced if the watch eases some problem in my life.
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The Apple Watch will sell well, probably above Apple’s public expectations. I’m not saying that equals success, just that people will be clamoring for a new Apple device and will give it a try.
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There will be a ramp-up to volume sales. While the tech and high-end crowd will go after the watch quickly, many consumers will take a wait and see attitude, but they will start to come around by the end of the year.
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Apple’s Worldwide Developers Conference will be important for the Apple Watch. The conference is where Apple will lay the roadmap for all of its devices for the coming year. Developers and consumers will get a first-hand look at where this technology is going.
The first iteration of anything Apple has done in the last 15 years has been about releasing a stable, working product. They have, for the most part, met that goal. This is exactly what I expect from the company with the Apple Watch.
Ultimately, success of the Apple Watch depends on developer interest in making apps specific to the watch, functionality of the device, and the future plans Apple has for the watch. There are many things Apple could allow us to control and track with the watch, whether that’s in the home, car, or even our health.
One thing is for sure, the Apple Watch will be one of the most personal devices we have purchased in a long time.
It’s much too early to declare the Apple Watch a failure because it’s a device that we haven’t seen before. Many smart people jumped to conclusions and said the iPod and iPhone would fail too. They couldn’t have been more wrong.
Jim – re WWDC… I think another interesting thing to watch will be if/how IBM adds Apple Watch app offerings to their Apple for business efforts. I continue to believe the corporate market has a huge potential (especially for the iPad) and think software makes all the difference. Good software for the watch that drafts off that relationship to help executives get more value out of their wrist computer will certainly add to the likelihood for success.
I am going to attempt to wear the Apple Watch… it will be my first watch since I was 13 (17 years ago). My main motivation is actually simple: I want to tell the time without taking my phone out of my pocket : ) My secondary motivation is to interact with my phone’s core functions (messaging and calls) while my hands are otherwise busy, for example in the car or while I am making raw hamburger patties to grill.
If it does these tasks well. I will be sold on the product category.
I’ve not worn a watch regularly since I got my hands on a Nokia 8210. It was the phone that fitted into that funky little jeans pocket.
I actually collect watches. I have a thing for odd or interesting digitals from the 80’s and very good fakes. I own both a genuine Omega Constellation Automatic and a very good ‘fake’ version and unless you know, you would be very hard pressed to know the differences (weight).
I have some of the very first Casio ‘touch’ watches, a TC-50, TC-600 and an AT-550 (Janus) touch calculator watches. All fully functional, and all manufactured circa 1984.
I own around 60 watches, digitals, swiss, interesting examples, but even today I don’t on a day to day wear any one of them.
And I cannot see why I would want to start again.
I haven’t heard anyone comment that the Apple Watch may dramatically improve the iPhone’s battery life since many of the reasons we reach for our iPhones will be off-loaded to the Apple Watch. I realize that the Apple Watch will use the iPhone’s processing power, but turning the screen on and off 50x a day or more takes its toll on the iPhone battery.
It’d be nice if the Watch linked to the Macs too (perhaps it will be a surprise reveal). Not the ideal setup due to limited proximity but I’d much rather check messages on my wrist and do other things at the same instead of reaching for the phone in pocket and all that.
What problem does it solve? Not much, but I can see myself wearing a watch more than pocket a phone around the house all the time.
First off, I think djbressler’s post has an idea with great potential……..and surprisingly, I’ve not heard anyone else suggest it.
Now, my 2 (or 3) cents on Apple Watch.
Many people are wanting info that may not yet be ‘ready for introduction’…or at least wasn’t ready when the device was introduced and are shortsightedly presenting this as a negative with more weight than it should have
a). the watch hasn’t even been released, yet
b). many features of current iDevices were inspired by (or are directly related to third party developers…like twitter or notifications).
Let’s not get too wrapped up in ‘it doesn’t solve a problem’.
a). it solves problems that perhaps just don’t interest ‘you’
I’ve seen no reason NOT to buy the Apple watch…..especially for the wealthy
a). money is no object
b). merely being the ‘new Apple thing’ will make many want it…they’ll be surprised later by what it can do for them (easily one of Apple’s greatest advantages)
c). some folks will want it, but will wait until their techie friend/ relative tries it first and suggests it
d). there’s far more options than we’ve previously been provided with items new to Apple’s lineup…..even the physical size has two options
These are just some of the considerations for us to keep in mind. Read the post by ‘djbressler’ then imagine tapping a meeting notification on the watch to get the option of sending a ‘running late’ or ‘can’t make it’ notice. I think the Apple Watch will be a far bigger deal than we can currently grasp……especially if it’s internals are upgradeable for at 3-5 years before requiring a new physical device.
I think it more likely that they will let us connect it to an iPad before they bother with Macs, but I don’t think even that is likely to be a “surprise reveal” on the first version.
I would love it if this thing could pair with my iPad mini though, as the reason I am buying it in the first place, is that I recently realised that literally everything I currently use my iPhone for, could be done on the Watch.
I also forget to carry my phone with me a lot (since other than as a hot-spot I hardly use it), but I have my iPad with me 24/7. I would really, really, really like to ditch my iPhone altogether and just carry a cellular iPad mini and the Watch.
Blogs keep talking about the success or failure of the Watch, but it’s really only to drive page hits isn’t it? The likelihood of the product being a complete failure is so remote it’s hardly worth mentioning.
Even if it sells to a tiny fraction of current Apple customers it will be a huge hit. Anyone can see that it’s also a few heads above the competition already in terms of it’s design, so it’s more likely to define the market rather than flounder in it.
The only way I see this “failing” is the remote possibility of some huge design flaw that no one has seen that requires a recall of the product. And that’s just not very likely at all.
because besides the moniker, it’s no more just a watch as the iphone is a phone. so for me, activity tracking is my interest. time standing per hour, time walking per day, time active per day. add to this wireless ipod, and apple pay functionality, and i can eliminate two things from my person when jogging — phone and wallet. (the native apps will track and play w/o an iphone present). as a bonus i dont have to fish out my phone and unlock it just to read a message that says “k”.