Piper Jaffray analyst Gene Munster dissected Piper Jaffray’s fall survey of 7,200 teens.
Response to the Apple Watch remains, in the words of Piper Jaffray technology analyst Gene Munster, “tepid.” Only seven percent of teens said they already own a smartwatch — and just 16 percent would be interested in shelling out $350 to buy the Apple Watch.
“The concept of wearing a watch for teenagers is foreign — and I think that’s part of what is reflected in that response,” said Munster. “The second piece is, it’s still something that people need to hear more about, beyond what Apple has to say about it, before people get interested in it.”
Seems to me, anticipating response to a product that has not yet hit people’s wrists is a fool’s errand. The market for the Apple Watch is divided financially, functionally, and stylistically. Add to that divisions for age and gender and you’ve got one complex beast of a market.
A survey given now may be good for product design and marketing folks but is useless as a predictor of specific market segment response to a product. It is too early to tell how people will respond once they see an Apple Watch in the wild, have the chance to try one on for themselves, experience the pros and cons in real life.
More importantly, the Apple Watch is currently a static, unchanging product. When it is officially released and people respond to it, Apple will have the opportunity to fine tune their product line. Part of the beauty of the Apple Watch is its modular design, offering different case styles and sizes, along with a plethora of watch bands and corresponding pricing models. Apple has a lot of tuning points to address both weak and strong points in the market.
The Apple Watch market is dynamic and unpredictable. Any survey this early needs to either be ignored or taken with a grain of salt.
Same guy who keeps predicting an Apple TV.
Why is he asking teens about an aspirational product that has not shipped yet?
The same reason that he claims that Apple exceeds his initial shipments for new iPhones by stuffing the channel.
The guy is all noise and really, these days, about as relevant as Enderle and Dvorak.
Munsters’ been so wrong so often…why is still employed?
and the foolish twins at BI (one who happens to have been convicted of…)….and…and…yep the list goes on and on…
Any survey by Gene Munster needs to either be ignored or taken with a grain of salt.
This is what I find amusing. Every time Apple releases a product, it is projected to fail by all sort of analysts. iPod, iPhone, iPad have all had the same initial reaction, only to be smashing hits. I am not sure if the Apple Watch will be the same, but what I do know, is that analysts are just guessing, and I rather base my self on history than on conjecture.
“anticipating response to a product that has not yet hit people’s wrists is a fool’s errand.”
Gene runs that errand often.
I doubt very much that 7% of even teens surveyed own a smartwatch. That seems high from any perspective.
Interesting data, but not something you’d want to draw strong conclusions from. People are lousy at predictig their desire/need for things they aren’t familiar with. People aren’t familiar with “smartwatches,” and teens aren’t even very familiar with watches.
And then there is me, familiar enough with watches to know that I gave up on them after I started carrying a cellphone. I still hate the idea of having something heavy on my wrist, and really hoped Apple would announce something else, and yet, now, I am very intriguied and at least plan to give the Apple Watch a try.
Time will tell how it will do. It may be interesting to try and make predictions now, but its truly too soon to tell.
He doesn’t have to be accurate to motivate shareholders to buy & sell. Stagnation is the bane of investing. He’s only there to help stir the pot.
Are teens the target market for a product that starts at $350 anyway? A phone I get (those can be subsidized), an iPad for school makes sense, but I just don’t know if mom and dad are going to shell out that kind of money for their kid to wear a watch. Maybe if they see a function for athletics?
Seems to me that when more than double the entire market expresses interest in a product, then the product is off to a good start.
16% of teens “would” buy a $350 watch to go with an iPhone?
That’s amazingly high, not “tepid” – especially since we consider that that the survey group was not limited to teens who already own an iPhone.
That suggests that about a quarter of the teens who have iPhones “would” buy an Apple Watch [on the reasonable assumption that only ones who have an iPhone would be doing so; might be 20% if we include the “next phone will be an iPhone” group].
This assumes, as well, that the numbers match actual purchasing once it’s actually in the field; I don’t know which way I’d expect that to change.
(I am more interested in the idea that 7% of teens “already own a smartwatch”.
Unless this includes fitness trackers – possibly due to misunderstanding, or the broadest possible interpretation – that seems completely implausible.)
My suspicion [gut feeling, since AFAIK the survey wording is not online or is so hidden I can’t be bothered] is that most of that is really fitness trackers and the like, rather than actual smart watches.
I can’t claim to follow teen trends, but I do know a lot of early-adopter geeks, and I don’t know anyone who ever mentions having one, and I’ve never seen one in the wild.
Well, remember that there are a decent number of 18 and 19 year olds who are still “teens”, but have either jobs and spare cash, or student loan money to throw at electronics…
Also worth noting that it’s a percentage of teens who were asked about a potential Apple Watch, as the survey was performed before it was even announced. So… one out of six teens wanted a watch that nobody knew anything about. That’s honestly a pretty impressive number, and speaks a great deal to peoples’ faith in Apple’s design work.