Amazon

Amazon announces host of new Alexa devices, including a $60 Alexa Microwave

Amazon just announced a wave of new Alexa-equipped Echo devices. There’s a wall clock that lets you set timers, something called Echo Input that let’s you add an Alexa/Echo to an existing speaker via Bluetooth or 3.5mm headphone jack. There’s an Echo subwoofer and Echo Amp (think stereo equipment), and an Echo smart plug (use your voice to turn things on and off).

But my favorite? The Amazon Alexa Microwave. Yes, a microwave that lets you use your voice instead of pressing buttons. And it’s only $59.99.

I expect this thing to fly off the shelves, especially to college students. I wonder how long it will be until one of these devices makes its way into a movie or TV show plot. The microwave ships November 15th, in plenty of time for the holidays.

Amazon is stuffing its search results pages with ads

Rani Molla, Recode:

If it feels like Amazon’s site is increasingly stuffed with ads, that’s because it is. And it looks like that’s working — at least for brands that are willing to fork over ad dollars as part of their strategy to sell on Amazon.

Jump to the recode article and look at the sample images, especially that big search result for “cereal”. Amazon has long had sponsored ads, but this new move makes it that much harder to find genuine (not paid-for) results.

Amazon, squeezing out every penny.

Apple’s best media moves

Dan Moren, writing for Macworld, digs into the Apple TV’s TV app, the Movies Anywhere service, and Apple’s Apple Books rewrite.

The whole piece is worth reading, but a few nuggets:

The big question mark hanging over it all is what exactly will happen when Apple’s own video streaming service launches. Will it take over the [TV] app, pushing the rest of your content aside? Or will it be content to share a place on equal footing with the other partners? For customers’ sake, I certainly hope for the latter.

I use my Apple TV all the time, but never use the TV app, mostly because of the lack of Netflix integration. If Apple can get Netflix buy-in, and avoid overwhelming the TV app when they fold in their own Apple-branded content, the TV app will become my first stop when I switch to my Apple TV.

At this year’s Worldwide Developers Conference, Apple unveiled a major overhaul to its ebook platform, including a graphical update to the reading apps, a better store experience, and reading features that take aim at Amazon’s own Goodreads service.

That’s good because Amazon does continue to dominate the market and has little in the way of competition, and Apple is one of the few companies big enough to seriously challenge it. The real question is if Apple can do anything compelling enough to draw market share from Amazon.

I’ve long been an Amazon Kindle reader. I buy all my books from the Kindle store, do most of my reading on my iPad. But this new version of Apple Books has my attention. A central issue for me is the ability to share books with my family, something Amazon only recent started offering. Apple’s deal is much simpler, is already in place for me, and the Apple deal has none of Amazon’s limits.

Amazon’s Alexa app for iOS finally gets voice control

Brian Heater, TechCrunch:

Users who’ve downloaded the smart assistant on iOS will be able to ask the app for assistance starting today. It’s not baked-in natively, of course (turns our Apple’s got a smart assistant of its own it’s pretty fond of), so that interaction requires a tap of the button.

From there, however, you can ask Alexa questions, listen to music, access skills and control smart devices — you know, the standard Alexa fare. Queries like weather, sports, calendar and movies will also offer up a visual component in the app. The update will be rolled out to users in “the coming days” as a free download.

Key to me is the fact that Alexa is playing on Siri’s home turf. Alexa will never have access to the Home button, or to a gesture at the top of the iPhone interface. Same story on Android, where Alexa takes a back seat to Google-person.

Amazon tried to enter the phone market with Fire Phone back in 2014, but (from the Fire Phone Wikipedia page):

The phone received mixed reviews. Critics praised the Dynamic Perspective, Firefly and, to a lesser extent, the packaged headphones, but derided the build, design, Fire OS version of Android, specifications, and exclusivity to AT&T. Amazon did not release sales figures for any of its devices, but based in part on its quickly declining prices and an announced $170 million write-down, analysts have judged it having not been commercially successful. Amazon ceased production of the Fire Phone in August 2015 and discontinued sales soon after.

They’ve since relied on their own in-home devices, to great success, but they’ve conceded the mobile space, forced to hide Alexa in an app.

Will this matter in the long run? I think it will, assuming Siri continues to improve and that Apple matches Amazon’s in-home solutions over time. For example, Amazon has a low priced in home speaker. Apple does not.

Amazon makes a TV box that can be controlled by Alexa, hands-free. AppleTV is a better product, no question, but it does not, out of the box, allow you to use your voice to control your TV.

As an example, once you’ve set up your Fire TV Cube, you can ask Alexa to change the channel, to lower the volume, or go back 2 minutes in the movie, all with your hands immersed in some messy cooking project. HomePod does not yet offer that sort of control.

If and when Siri and HomePod add the capabilities demonstrated by Amazon, I see Amazon’s lack of a phone as an advantage that will tilt the playing field in Apple’s direction.

Amazon Fire TV Cube: The promise of a voice-controlled future not yet delivered

A few weeks ago, we posted about Amazon’s new voice controlled Fire TV Cube.

Think Apple TV married with Amazon Echo. No remote required, just ask Alexa to turn on your system, change channels, pause, jump to a specific location, all via voice.

The ultimate hands-free utopia, right?

Trevor Daugherty, 9to5Toys:

Fire TV Cube looks to cure that with an all-in-one solution centered around its Alexa voice platform. In our hands-on testing, it delivered as a means for sorting through content but fell short as an intuitive hub for home theaters. The potential is there, but don’t count on it changing the game just yet.

Dig through Trevor’s review. While some of the issues raised are easy to get past, many of them are enough to spoil the value of the experience. Judge for yourself but, if you are even considering a purchase, read the whole article to learn what you are in for.

Amazon’s new Fire TV Cube: Hands free control of your TV setup

From the Fire TV Cube product page:

  • Fire TV Cube is the first hands-free streaming media player with Alexa, delivering an all-in-one entertainment experience. From across the room, just ask Alexa to turn on the TV, dim the lights, and play what you want to watch.

  • With far-field voice recognition, eight microphones, and beamforming technology, Fire TV Cube hears you from any direction. Enjoy hands-free voice control—search, play, pause, fast forward, and more. Plus, control your TV, sound bar, cable or satellite box, receiver, and more with just your voice.

  • Do more with Alexa. Fire TV Cube has a built-in speaker that lets you check the weather, listen to the news, control compatible smart home devices, and more—even with the TV off. Fire TV Cube is always getting smarter with new Alexa skills and voice functionality.

  • Experience true-to-life picture quality and sound with access to vivid 4K Ultra HD up to 60 fps, HDR, and the audio clarity of Dolby Atmos.

This seems like a major move into the living room for Amazon, and a much more direct threat to Apple TV and, more subtly, an attack on HomePod.

To get a sense of this, try to use your Apple TV with just your voice. No remote allowed, not even to turn it on. Though there are workarounds, including configurations where you can use your HomePod to turn on your Apple TV, most people will get nowhere with this challenge. And that’s the point.

HomePod is designed with Apple Music in mind, with a secondary nod to Siri. The Fire TV Cube, starting at $119.99, brings a full-fledged Alexa to the living room, designed specifically to control your TV, a direct replacement for your Apple TV.

Though you don’t get the deep access to the Apple ecosystem, you do get access to Alexa (and the growing list of 3rd party Alexa skills), and you can control the whole thing with your voice, no remote needed.

Looking forward to seeing the next generation of Apple TV. Will Apple somehow use HomePod as a bridge to bring this hands-free capability to Apple TV? Not sure that’d be enough, since my HomePod lives far from my TV. I’m hoping for built-in far-field mics in the Apple TV itself.

Amazon will now deliver packages to the trunk of your car

Andrew J. Hawkins, The Verge:

Amazon announced today a new service that gives its couriers access to a person’s vehicle for the purpose of leaving package deliveries inside. But rather than use smart locks and a cloud-connected camera to gain entry, Amazon wants to use the connected technologies embedded in many modern vehicles today. The company is launching this new service in partnership with two major automakers — General Motors and Volvo — and will be rolling out in 37 cities in the US starting today.

Amazon creep, first through your front door, and now into your car. Interesting liability issue. If something goes wrong with an in-house delivery, presumably the Amazon camera would be theft deterrent, obvious evidence, and proof of delivery.

But that’s missing with an in-car delivery. You could minimize an issue by emptying your trunk first. But many cars give you access to the main car compartment once you can open the tailgate or trunk lid. And there’s no cloud-based camera to prove delivery catch theft.

It’ll be interesting to watch this unfold.

Side note: Audi and Amazon did a test-run of this back in 2015.

Jean-Louis Gassée talks Amazon, smart TVs, and walled gardens

The first thing that struck me about Jean-Louis’ Amazon-centric Monday Note was this quote from Amazon’s shareholder letter, regarding memos:

“We don’t do PowerPoint (or any other slide-oriented) presentations at Amazon. Instead, we write narratively structured six-page memos. We silently read one at the beginning of each meeting in a kind of ‘study hall.’ Not surprisingly, the quality of these memos varies widely. Some have the clarity of angels singing. They are brilliant and thoughtful and set up the meeting for high-quality discussion. Sometimes they come in at the other end of the spectrum.”

Fascinating. OK, back to the topic at hand:

Amazon now has 100M Prime subscribers and is a respected, if not feared, supplier of video content, some of which is home-grown and recognized as world-class. Amazon has the means — and the need — to envelop its Prime subscribers in its Everything walled garden. An Amazon Fire TV set finishes the job the Alexa-powered Echo devices started. After a hard day’s work, you come home, ask your Amazon TV to turn the AC on, order dinner from the nearest Whole Foods store, and watch the latest Harry Bosch episode.

I do agree that Amazon’s focus on Fire TV sets is an important chess move and step toward their own walled garden. But, as I’ve said before, they are missing a critical element, a phone with wide adoption. If Amazon ever found a way to ship a phone that competed well with iPhone or, if it was Android-based, ate significantly into the Samsung/Google/etc. marketshare, that’d be trouble for Apple.

In addition, a Fire TV set solves the “Input 1” problem, the default connection that comes up when you turn the TV on. Not important? Think of the billion (or billions — some say three) that Google is rumored to pay Apple to be its default search engine on the iPhone.

Fascinating point. What comes on when you turn on your TV? For me (and, I’d argue for most folks), my TV defaults to whatever input I was watching last. But a TV that makes it super easy to watch Amazon video content with some frictionless combination of built-in seamless UX and tightly integrated remote? That’d have value, I think.

Apple TV is still a second class citizen for me. Or, at best, a peer to my cable package that requires me to keep two remotes handy and switch inputs regularly. I would love a more integrated solution.

Jean-Louis always keeps me thinking. Note his use of mutatis mutandis. Had to grab the dictionary for that one.

How merchants use Facebook to flood Amazon with fake reviews

Washington Post:

On Amazon, customer comments can help a product surge in popularity. The online retail giant says that more than 99 percent of its reviews are legitimate because they are written by real shoppers who aren’t paid for them.

But a Washington Post examination found that for some popular product categories, such as Bluetooth headphones and speakers, the vast majority of reviews appear to violate Amazon’s prohibition on paid reviews. Such reviews have certain characteristics, such as repetitive wording that people probably cut and paste in.

OK, this is pretty old news. Terrible news, but fake reviews have been around for some time. But:

Many of these fraudulent reviews originate on Facebook, where sellers seek shoppers on dozens of networks, including Amazon Review Club and Amazon Reviewers Group, to give glowing feedback in exchange for money or other compensation. The practice artificially inflates the ranking of thousands of products, experts say, misleading consumers.

Amazon does periodic purges to wipe out those reviewers, but:

But the ban, sellers and experts say, merely pushed an activity that used to take place openly into dispersed and harder-to-track online communities.

There, an economy of paid reviews has flourished. Merchants pledge to drop reimbursements into a reviewer’s PayPal account within minutes of posting comments for items such as kitchen knives, rain ponchos or shower caddies, often sweetening the deal with a $5 commission or a $10 Amazon gift card. Facebook this month deleted more than a dozen of the groups where sellers and buyers matched after being contacted by The Post. Amazon kicked a five-star seller off its site after an inquiry from The Post.

And:

Suspicious or fraudulent reviews are crowding out authentic ones in some categories, The Post found using ReviewMeta data. ReviewMeta examines red flags, such as an unusually large number of reviews that spike over a short period of time or “sock puppet” reviewers who appear to have cut and pasted stock language.

For example, of the 47,846 total reviews for the first 10 products listed in an Amazon search for “bluetooth speakers,” two-thirds were problematic, based on calculations using the ReviewMeta tool. So were more than half of the 32,435 reviews for the top 10 Bluetooth headphones listed.

Nice work by the Washington Post here. Just another example of everything is broken. Sigh.

Chat: Google’s big shot at killing Apple’s iMessage

The Guardian:

Google has unveiled a new messaging system, Chat, an attempt to replace SMS, unify Android’s various messaging services and beat Apple’s iMessage and Facebook’s WhatsApp with the help of mobile phone operators.

Unlike traditional texting, or SMS, most modern messaging services – such as Signal, WhatsApp, Facebook Messenger or Apple’s iMessage – are so-called over-the-top (OTT) services, which circumvent the mobile phone operator by sending messages over the internet.

Chat is a successor to SMS:

Instead of using OTT, it is based on rich communication services (RCS), a successor to SMS (short message standard), which has been used by people all over the world since 1992 and is still the fallback for most.

And:

With Chat, Google is unifying all the disparate versions of RCS under one interoperable standard that will work across networks, smartphones and operating systems. In doing so it hopes to take the surefire nature of SMS – anyone can send anyone else with a phone a message without them requiring a specific account or app – and bring it up-to-date with all the features modern chat demands.

On the potential for Chat killing iMessage, I defer to this excellent comment from The Overspill:

if Google even looks as though it is positioning this as a way to “kill iMessage”, Apple will never support it, and if Apple doesn’t support it then operators are going to wonder why they’re letting Google screw up their golden goose, and they won’t support it after all. Google can preload it on Android phones, but that’s not “killing iMessage”; it’s “providing an alternative to iMessage”, which WhatsApp and latterly Facebook Messenger have done for years without “killing” iMessage.

And John Gruber’s take on the same topic, different article:

It is unconscionable for Google to back a new protocol that isn’t end-to-end encrypted. End-to-end encryption is table stakes for any new communication platform today. Apple should ignore this — if it’s not secure it should be a non-starter.

I agree with all of the above. I don’t see any danger to iMessage. But I do see this meshing with Google/Android’s place in the market. Chat’s penetration will likely be at the base of the pyramid, the larger, lower priced, smaller margin part of the market. Apple’s sweet spot has always been about halfway up the pyramid: smaller, but higher priced, with larger margins.

Note also that here’s another place where Amazon has no seat at the table. With no mobile phone of their own, Alexa can send a text via the Internet, but has to ride on iOS or Android infrastructure when out and about.

Recode survey: Amazon has most positive impact on society of any major tech company

In a nutshell, the survey’s top 3:

  • Amazon, 20%
  • Google, 15%
  • Apple, 11%

The survey was implemented by SurveyMonkey.

What I’d really love to see is some detail on people’s thinking on this. What is the positive impact from Amazon? Is it about getting goods so quickly and reliably? Amazon Echo and Alexa? Something else?

And is Google’s positive mostly about search?

I also wonder if Apple would have won this survey hands down 8 years ago, when the iPhone was still exploding but Android hadn’t quite taken off yet. Interesting.

Amazon touts 100M Prime users as Apple quietly passes a quarter-billion paid subscriptions

Daniel Eran Dilger, AppleInsider:

Apple now has a customer base of more than 250 million paid subscriptions across its Services offerings of Apple Music, iCloud and App Store continuing payments. Viewed against Amazon’s recent announcement of 100 million Prime members, that figure is substantial. But Apple is also adding around 30 million new subscriptions every quarter.

Fascinating perspective comparing Apple and Amazon subscription numbers. As I’ve said many times, it’s all about the ecosystem. HomePod brings Apple Music subscribers, enough to justify the development cost. iOS devices bring iCloud subscriptions. There’s a steady contribution of subscription money flowing in from HBO, Hulu, Netflix, etc. It all contributes to the services bottom line.

Amazon announce plans to ship smart TVs with Fire TV, Alexa built in

Amazon press release:

Amazon and Best Buy today announced a collaboration to bring the next generation of Fire TV Edition smart TVs to customers in the United States and Canada. As a first step in the partnership, Best Buy will launch more than ten 4K and HD Fire TV Edition models from Insignia and Toshiba, beginning this summer.

And:

The newly designed smart TVs come with the Fire TV experience built-in, uniquely bringing together live over-the-air TV and all your streaming content into one easy-to-view location. Connect any HD antenna and instantly use Alexa to search for and watch broadcast TV, or choose from a vast catalog of streaming TV episodes and movies from Netflix, Prime Video, HBO, PlayStation Vue, Hulu, and many more. Fire TV Edition includes a Voice Remote with Alexa, making it easy to launch apps, search for TV shows, play music, switch inputs, control smart home devices, and more. It can also be paired with any Echo device allowing you to easily use your voice to control your TV experience hands-free with Alexa.

I see this as a real challenge to Apple and Siri, as well as to Google. But I also worry about privacy and security implications. So much to unpack here.

There’s also the concept of buying two different technologies that are evolving at different rates, bundled together into one expensive, inseparable package. How often do you replace your TV? And how often do you replace your TV box (think Apple TV or ChromeCast)? If they are one and the same, seems to me it’d be problematic to change one without changing the other.

Wonder what Apple has planned on this front.

Spotify tests native voice search, groundwork for smart speakers

Josh Constine, TechCrunch:

Spotify has a new voice search interface that lets you say “Play my Discover Weekly,” “Show Calvin Harris” or “Play some upbeat pop” to pull up music.

If this was an app that someone created as an experiment, that’d be one thing. But this comes from Spotify’s own R&D.

Hard to say what kind of impact this will have on Apple’s music and smart speaker ambitions. After all, Apple Music, HomePod, and Siri are all part of a much larger ecosystem. And though Spotify does dominate the paid music sector, it’s reach does not extend into anything larger. Yet.

I can’t help but think that Spotify would be an enticing partner for Google or Amazon, more so if they built a bridge to marry their musical intelligence (they have access to a massive trove of user data) with intelligent musical speech command processing and, say, Amazon’s Echo installed base.

This is an interesting development, worth keeping an eye on.

Alexa, Siri, and a step toward follow-up conversation

When you ask Siri, Alexa, or Google a question, you have to say the trigger phrase, “Hey Siri”, “Alexa”, or “OK Google”. When you want to follow-up, you have to repeat that trigger phrase.

But that is about to change.

Amazon has rolled out a beta of something it calls Follow-up Mode. From this Amazon Help page:

When you turn on Follow-Up Mode, you can make more requests without repeating the wake word. Follow-up mode is available on all hands-free Alexa-enabled devices. The blue indicator light on the Echo device remains on for a few seconds, letting you know that Alexa is active and ready for your next request.

The idea is, after you say “Alexa”, Alexa keeps listening for a follow-up query until it times out. Notably, follow-up mode does not kick in when:

  • Audio is playing. For example, the device is playing music, books, or you’re on a call through the device.
  • You end the conversation with Alexa. For example, you can say, “stop,” “cancel,” “go to sleep,” or “thank you.”
  • Alexa is not confident you’re speaking to her. For example, if she detects that speech was background noise or that the intent of the speech was not clear.

I’d think this would be relatively simple for Apple to implement for Siri. There’s certainly value when you want to do a sequence of things. But I also think it’d be a big help for Siri’s context analysis, making it more likely that two queries in a row are connected in some way, like so:

  • Hey Siri, what time is my next meeting?
  • What time is the one after that?

Or:

  • Hey Siri, what song is this?
  • What album is it from?

You get the idea. Conversational context is a bit of a holy grail. As is, all three (Siri, Alexa, Google) are still infants, still learning the most rudimentary rules of conversational memory.

Amazon Alexa devices are laughing spontaneously and it’s “Bone Chillingly Creepy”

Buzzfeed:

Owners of Amazon Echo devices with the voice-enabled assistant Alexa have been pretty much creeped out of their damn minds recently. People are reporting that the bot sometimes spontaneously starts laughing — which is basically a bloodcurdling nightmare.

Step through the article, read the tweets. This has all the elements of a next-gen horror movie. I can’t help but wonder if there’s IoT hacking going on here, if there’s not someone having a good laugh over this.

Or ghosts. Yeah, probably ghosts.

Amazon taking photo of your front door, showing proof of delivered packages

Amazon Help:

Amazon Logistics (AMZL) may take a photo on delivery when a package is left unattended. Capturing delivery photos is intended to help customers see that their package was safely delivered and where. The photo will focus on the placement of the package. If a photo on delivery is captured, it may show up when you track a package from Your Orders.

And here’s a tweet showing the customer experience:

https://twitter.com/Heather_PLS/status/905932416774168576

This has all sorts of implications. First off, is this a sign that Amazon will shift its stance on refunds when packages are stolen off the porch? Currently, Amazon sends a replacement, no questions asked. Is the value here purely for notifications, or will Amazon use this as proof and, combined with their drop the package inside your house Key program, shift responsibility of package theft to the homeowner?

But there’s also a massive data collection effort underway. Amazon is creating an army of workers who are being trained to take pictures of people’s houses. As is, this is valuable mapping data. But to me, this also hints at a huge potential next step. Amazon might use this camera-laden workforce to take other pictures. Not suggesting something nefarious, more saying they might create a powerful database that can be used for queries like:

  • Here’s a picture of a house, what’s the address?
  • How many houses have electronic doorbells installed?

Huge potential.

ElevationLab: Amazon is complicit with counterfeiting

ElevationLab blog:

When someone goes to the lengths of making counterfeits of your products, it’s at least a sign you’re doing something right. And it deserves a minute of flattery.

But when Chinese counterfeiters tool up and make copies of your product, send that inventory to Amazon, then overtake the real product’s buy box by auto-lowering the price – it’s a real problem. Customers are unknowingly buying crap versions of the product, while both Amazon and the scammers are profiting, and the reputation you’ve built goes down the toilet.

And if you’ve paid Amazon a boat load of money to advertise the product you’ve designed, built, invested in, and shipped – it’s further insult to injury. And when new counterfeit sellers keep popping up every week so you have to play whack-a-mole with Amazon, who take days to remove the sellers, it’s the beginning of the end for your small business.

Follow the headline link, take a look at the picture, a screen capture of an Amazon listing. Can you tell that this is a counterfeit? It says ElevationLab, in the form of a link, right above the product name. In this image, the product is sold by “suiningdonghanjiaju Co Ltd”. According to ElevationLab, they do not sell to wholesalers, so (the way I read it) if it’s not sold by ElevationLab, it’s counterfeit.

I went onto Amazon and looked up the product myself. Here’s a link. When I looked it up, I got a product sold by Crystal Sylvain, but with the same ElevationLab link at the top. Presumably, this is a counterfeit as well, perhaps an alt version of “suiningdonghanjiaju Co Ltd”.

How are we supposed to tell? I want to support the original designer/maker, not help rip them off and put them out of business.

Infuriating.

Ring went on Shark Tank, asked for $7 million. No deal. Amazon just bought them for more than $1 billion.

LA Times:

Ring doorbells are already being used by 2 million customers. Its improbable success comes five years after its founder, serial entrepreneur Jamie Siminoff, was rejected on the TV show “Shark Tank.”

Rejected isn’t quite right. He got offers, just none that made sense to him.

But the company proved there was demand for video-enabled doorbells, which enable users to see outside their homes via smartphone or computer. The technology provides a sense of security and a salve for one of the most nagging problems in the e-commerce era: package thieves.

There’s a certain irony there. Seems to me, the biggest victim of package thieves is Amazon, who ponys up a replacement when its packages don’t make it into customer hands.

Ring is also an excellent complement to Amazon Key, the program that allows package delivery services access to your house to leave a package under your lock and key.

One last thought on this. I’ve long thought one critical piece of the Amazon Echo ecosystem (echosystem?) that was missing was an Alexa phone. Amazon’s Fire Phone was a product ahead of its time. It was a commercial failure.

Alexa runs as a second class citizen on iOS and Android. There, but without that frictionless access to the hardware that makes Siri and Google person so easy to summon. I think Alexa is the demand card that Amazon’s phone was missing the first time around. If an Alexa-phone hit the market now, I think it’d be a very different story.

Apple earnings call today, and the race for $1 trillion

The tension here, as it usually is, is the balance between past sales and future projections.

Now on to the race to $1 trillion. This is all about market capitalization, or market cap, for short. Market cap is a company’s share price times the number of shares outstanding. Here’s an Investopedia article on the concept.

As of this writing, Apple’s market cap is $860B. That’s based on a price to earning ratio of 18.25. That P/E ratio is on the high end of middling, certainly a reasonable number.

Amazon’s market cap is $696B, with a P/E ratio of 364.98. Yes, you read that correctly. In effect, Apple’s stock is grounded in actual results, while Amazon’s stock is more of a flier, based on growth and the thinking that Amazon is going to eat the world.

And Alphabet? Hot on Apple’s tail with a market cap of $811B and a P/E of 39.09. Right in the middle.

Who will get to $1 trillion first? Might happen this year.

Want to check these numbers for yourself? Go to Google and type “Apple’s market cap” or just “AAPL” and Google will show the relevant details.

Alexa lost her voice

[VIDEO] Pretty solid teaser (embedded in main Loop post) for Amazon’s upcoming Super Bowl commercial.

Checking out Amazon Go, the first no-checkout convenience store

Glenn Fleishman, Fast Company:

Every part of the U.S. has a different local term for a convenience store: the bodega, the corner store—even “the Wawa,” a chain name that Northeasteners use generically. Now Amazon wants to extend its brand to the notion of a grab-and-go shop with Amazon Go, a store that literally lets you grab and go.

And:

Amazon Go works like—well, like a physical manifestation of Amazon’s 1-Click checkout, where you “click” by taking an item off a shelf. On arrival, you launch the Go app, which comes out today for iPhones and Android phones and connects to your Amazon account. It displays a 2D code that you scan at one of several glass security gates. The code identifies you to the store and opens the gate.

And:

Once you’re in, AI algorithms start to track you and everything you pick up and keep. You can bag your items as you go if you so choose, and need interact with an employee only if you’re buying alcohol, in which case an associate standing in the liquor area will check your ID.

And:

I tested the system by picking up a can of LaCroix water and leaving the store. It was a non-event, which is sort of the point. The experience doesn’t feel like an act of advanced technology unless you scan the ceiling and notice the hundreds of matte-black cameras surveying the shopping floor below.

This is the future of retail. Or, at least, a major step along that path. Two things occur to me:

  • This is a direct example of AI eliminating the need for specific jobs. Clearly, there are plenty of employees in the chain here, both in building out the store and designing and coding the AI itself. But those jobs are front loaded. Once the stores are built, and the AI in place, this will require very few people to run.

  • What happens if someone gets hold of your Amazon login info and goes on a spree through a store? If someone uses my credit card fraudulently, my credit card company covers me 100%. Does Amazon have a similar policy?

This is a great read.

Jeff Bezos, margins, and the future of retail

Benedict Evans, from a terrific read entitled TV, retail, advertising and cascading collapses:

When Sears and Macy’s go bust, how many malls do they take with them, and how many other retailers that might have been doing fine on their own will go or lose a lot of their footprint because of that? And, where were those retailers advertising? What was their TV budget? How much of this is self-reinforcing – the more you buy online, the more you buy online?

And:

Suppose you go on eBay and buy the last ten years’ of Elle Decoration and drop it into Google Brain, and then wave your phone at your living room and ask what cushions or lamps you would like?

And:

Suppose I put a bunch of HD cameras in the right parts of Berlin and Brooklyn and track what people are wearing, entirely automatically, and then see what of that shows up in middle America in a year, and then apply that pattern matching to what people are wearing in Berlin now?

And:

There’s a famous Jeff Bezos quote that ‘your margin is my opportunity’ – right now Amazon is building a billion dollar ad business in its own search results, but I suspect he also looks at the $500bn that’s spent every year on advertising and the further $500bn that’s spent on marketing and sees money that should be going to lower prices and same-day or 1-hour delivery.

The mechanics of retail are changing. Margin (simplistically put, what Apple charges for an iPhone minus what they pay to create that iPhone) is critical to a company, necessary for them to prosper, grow. The slimmer the margin, the thinner the ice on which that company skates.

In “your margin is my opportunity”, Bezos sees disruption in large margins. He does not need to advertise products. The company that creates the product pays for the advertising/marketing out of their margins. An opportunity indeed.

A roundup of CES home automation and Apple accessory announcements

If you haven’t already, read this post from Ben Bajarin, Apple’s indirect presence fades from CES, which we linked to yesterday. From the post:

It is easy to say that because Apple was never present at CES that the show didn’t mean something to them or their ecosystem. It is easy, and correct to say that CES was not, or never was, a measure of the health of Apple’s products. It is, however, incorrect and dangerous to miss that CES had been, for some time, a barometer for the health of Apple’s ecosystem.

Now make your way through the linked MacStories roundup of cool CES gadgets and accessories. It does seem like the vast majority of CES announcements I’ve seen are Alexa first, HomeKit second.

Not sure I agree that this is a barometer of the health of Apple’s ecosystem. Instead, I see it as a marker of where the puck is now, not where it is going to be. Apple Watch is a perfect example of this. When Apple Watch first hit, it was lost in the glut of watch product. Over time, Apple Watch proved itself as a well designed, thoughtful product, while many of the cheap, competing products are no longer around.

Not saying that Alexa won’t win. But I am saying that it is simply too early to tell how this will all shake out.

Amazon has big plans for Alexa ads in 2018

Here it comes. Now that you’ve invested in this useful tech, found a nice place for it in your workflow, we’re going to start serving up ads.

Makes me wonder if the original Echo shipped with a disclaimer that ads might be part of the experience. If not, seems like a liability for Amazon, potential for a law suit. Either way, this seems like a decidedly negative turn in that particular road.

Apple TV now on sale at Amazon, currently out of stock

Benjamin Mayo, 9to5Mac:

It took almost six months since the initial murmurings, but Apple and Amazon have finally resolved their differences. The Apple TV 4K and fourth-generation Apple TV are available to buy from Amazon.com, following the launch of the Prime Video tvOS app earlier this month.

Checked it just now, here’s what I see:

Here’s a US link to the Apple TV 4K – 32GB. Hopefully, Apple and Amazon will work the stock issue out in the next day or so.

Amazon’s fake review problem

An interesting post by Brian Bien on Amazon fake reviews, with an example of three very different reviews of the same product, all of which had this exact sentence:

The light can be pretty bright, you can adjust it where it’ll be dim and slowly brighten 30 minutes before the alarm time.

Brian makes the point:

Amazon – who has some of the world’s most advanced ML – really needs to step up its review fraud detection game. Imagine how great the Amazon shopping experience would be if we could trust its reviews.

This is one of the great potential values of machine learning. Apple’s early machine learning frameworks focused on two specific areas: Image Recognition and Natural Language Processing. Image recognition helps pick out images of cats, or roses, or your best friend Francis from your photo library. Natural Language Processing (NLP) focuses on parsing streams of text to pull out relevant details.

The fake reviews problem is a perfect problem for NLP and machine learning. There’s really no reason Amazon can’t do better. Maybe Apple could give them a hand.

Amazon changes review policy to help reduce paid and fake reviews

MadGeniusClub:

Since Amazon first opened its virtual doors, there have been concerns about reviews. Not just for books but for all the products sold through its site. It is no secret that authors have paid for reviews — and some still do. Or that there have been fake accounts set up to give sock puppet reviews. There have been stories about sellers and manufacturers planting fake reviews as well, all in the hopes of bolstering their product rankings and ratings

And:

Amazon now requires you to purchase a minimum of $50 worth of books or other products before you can leave a review or answer questions about a product. These purchases, and it looks like it is a cumulative amount, must be purchased via credit card or debit card — gift cards won’t count. This means someone can’t set up a fake account, buy themselves a gift card and use it to get around the policy.

This certainly will help combat mass fake reviews, since they will no longer be free. As to paid reviews, don’t see how this will change that practice. Here’s a link to Amazon’s official policy page.

Amazon wants a key to your house. I did it. I regretted it.

Geoffrey A. Fowler, Washington Post:

I gave Amazon.com a key to go into my house and drop off packages when I’m not around. After two weeks, it turns out letting strangers in has been the least-troubling part of the experience.

Once Amazon owned my door, I was the one locked into an all-Amazon world.

And:

Make no mistake, the $250 Amazon Key isn’t just about stopping thieves. It’s the most aggressive effort I’ve seen from a tech giant to connect your home to the Internet in a way that puts itself right at the center.

And:

The Key-compatible locks are made by Yale and Kwikset, yet don’t work with those brands’ own apps. They also can’t connect with a home-security system or smart-home gadgets that work with Apple and Google software.

And, of course, the lock can’t be accessed by businesses other than Amazon. No Walmart, no UPS, no local dog-walking company.

And:

Amazon is barely hiding its goal: It wants to be the operating system for your home.

First things first, note that this article appeared in The Washington Post. The Post is owned by Jeff Bezos. Which tells me that Bezos truly is allowing the Post to be the Post, and that the Post is not afraid to bite the hand that feeds.

That said, the issue here is the walled garden. Once Amazon controls the lock on your door, they can control who has access to that lock, keeping out eventual home delivery by rivals like Walmart, and keeping rivals like Apple and HomeKit from offering door-unlocking services.

Very interesting.