Jean-Louis Gassée:

From a PR perspective, the transition to ARM looks like a delicate balancing exercise. If Apple announces the move six months before the first ARM-based machines are scheduled to emerge, how will that effect current Mac sales?

A new Mac always raises this question, especially with a new Mac that is more than a speed bump. And more so if Apple releases a Mac that moves from Intel to ARM.

Jean-Louis brings up the fabled story of Adam Osborne, who brought the world the first commercially successful portable computer, but whose company crashed and burned.

In 1983, the polymath entrepreneur managed to kill sales of his creation by promising that its successors, the Osborn Executive and the Osborne Vixen, would be even better, Just You Wait! The pitch was so persuasive that customers did indeed wait. Sales collapsed and so did Osborne’s business.

Some say this is more fable than truth. From the Osborne Wikipedia page:

according to some new sources the real reason for Osborne Computer’s bankruptcy was management errors and insufficient cash flow.

Given how long a lead time Apple is said to be offering from announcement to release, it seems this will not be any more of a concern than previous experiences. Apple is a master of the product pipeline.

On a related note, an imagined hardware Developer Transition Kit (via DF), based on the ARM 12Z and housed in a headless device (Apple TV or Mac mini enclosure). This makes eminent sense to me. Pure speculation, but still.

Speculation aside, a key takeaway is the idea that a first ARM Mac need not replace the entire Mac product line. It might be a laptop. Or it might be a Mac mini. Or it might not even be.