Kif Leswing, CNBC:

Apple’s forthcoming streaming service could rack up over 100 million subscribers in a year, Barclays analysts estimated in a note on Thursday.

And from the Barclays note:

• We model 222M hardware devices sold by Apple over the next 12 months.

• We assume that about 50% of those buying a device in the first year will accept the service, yielding well over 100M subscribers a year from now. We exclude sales to China and our estimate of second and third devices at families.

• We assume that the trial period will last for one year, at which point we expect subscribers to decline as users opt out, and are partially offset by new additions. Of course the rate of churn will depend meaningfully on how quickly Apple can ramp up its content library.

Compare that to Netflix’s estimated 60 million paying subscribers. Apple has a pretty effective way to ramp up a new service. And the free year of Apple TV+ when you buy a new device gives Apple a year to fill the pipeline, make the service more attractive.

That extra year also gives Apple time to learn from early mistakes, become better at creating original content, better at negotiating with talent/studios, raise the bar for Apple TV+.

It’ll be interesting to see paid subscriber numbers for both Netflix and Apple TV+ one year after launch and again a year after that. I’m bullish on Apple TV+.