John Gruber, Daring Fireball:

I created a bit of a stir the other day when I suggested the OLED iPhone “Pro” could start at $1,500.

Let’s take a serious look at this. $1,500 as a starting price is probably way too high. But I think $1,200 is quite likely as the starting price, with the high-end model at $1,300 or $1,400.

And:

You can’t talk about iPhone specs and pricing without considering scale. It’s not enough for Apple to create a phone that can be sold for $649/749/849 with 35 percent profit margins. They have to create a phone that can be sold at those prices, with those margins, and which can be manufactured at scale. And for Apple that scale is massive: anything less than 60–70 million in the first quarter in which it goes on sale is a failure — possibly a catastrophic failure.

In short, new iPhones aren’t defined by what Apple can make for a certain price, but by what Apple can make for a certain price at a certain incredibly high quantity.

What follows is a relatively long logic chain, but one that is well worth making your way through. By the end of John’s post, I was convinced that Apple will indeed be introducing a deluxe iPhone tier this fall, or soon thereafter.

UPDATE: Fascinating response to Gruber’s post from Philip Elmer-DeWitt [H/T Jason Hooper]. At its core:

Is Gruber speaking for Apple for himself when he defines terms and describes bundles?

I put the question to him this morning, but I don’t expect a candid answer. He’s a man who knows how to keep a secret. Besides, a good journalist will protect his or her sources, even when their names are out of the bag.

Gruber responds: “I have no inside information in this regard [2017 iPhone pricing]. Nada, none, zilch. Feel free to quote me on that. I have no comment regarding my tweets on inductive charging and can’t believe you even asked about that.”