Bank of America Merrill Lynch (the corporate and investment banking division of Bank of America) ran a survey to get a sense of the public’s AirPod and Apple Watch purchase intentions.

From Business Insider’s writeup of the survey:

12% of U.S. consumers surveyed by Bank of America Merrill Lynch say they intend to purchase AirPods, apparently on the strength of Apple’s marketing, given that few people have actually seen and tried them out.

This is a very bullish sign for Apple, says BAML. “12% of the US installed base could lead to up to an incremental $3bn in revenue,” writes the analysts.

John Gruber, from his analysis:

Not 12 percent of iPhone owners. 12 percent of consumers. For a product that Apple has merely announced, but not yet even started advertising. That’s huge.

As per usual, Gruber’s writeup is worth reading.

Some math:

$3B / $159 = 18.9M

This tells us that it will take 18.9 million AirPod sales to generate $3 billion.

18.9 / 12% = 157M

This tells us that it will take a total population of 157 million for 12% to generate $3B in sales.

There are about 90 million iPhone users in the US (Please ping me if you know a more precise number), so clearly Gruber is right about that. There are about 125 million US households (again, ping me if you have a better number), which dovetails nicely with 157 million total consumers.

With this math in mind, go read Gruber’s take on the survey, including his thoughts on the Apple Watch projections.