Tim Cook’s promise to “double-down on secrecy” seems to be working, at least as far as analysts are concerned.

Fast forward to this year’s iPhone lauch: Munster, after observing iPhone 5c & 5s launch day lines and taking notes, reiterated his firm’s prediction of weekend sales of 5 to 6 million, detailed as “2.5 million iPhone 5s” and “3 million units” of iPhone 5c.

In parallel, KGI analyst Ming-Chi Kuo predicted sales of 6 to 8 million.

When Apple announced sales of 9 million iPhones over the weekend, Munster told Bloomberg, “When I saw that 9-million number, I basically fell out of my chair.”

This from a guy who is traditionally on the high side when it comes to predicting Apple unit shipments.