Moore’s Law is foundational to anything and everything to do with technology. In a nutshell, it states that the number of transistors that can fit on an integrated circuit doubles every two years. A more modern definition says that chip performance doubles every 18-24 months. According to Intel’s former chief architect, Moore’s Law is reaching the end of its life. And this has huge implications for the tech industry, which draws its lifeblood from smaller and faster products.

Moore’s law is headed for a cliff. According to Colwell, the maximum extension of the law, in which transistor densities continue doubling every 18-24 months, will be hit in 2020 or 2022, around 7nm or 5nm.

“For planning horizons, I pick 2020 as the earliest date we could call [Moore’s law] dead,” Colwell said. “You could talk me into 2022, but whether it will come at 7 or 5nm, it’s a big deal.”

There are a number of technologies (graphene, III-V semiconductors, carbon nanotubes, etc.) that offer some hope for the continuation of the promise of Moore’s Law, but none has proved practical as of yet.